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Date:    Mon, 23 Dec 1996 18:24:29 -0500
From:    "Robert I. Eachus" <eachus@SPECTRE.MITRE.ORG>
Subject: Re: Magic in 1997 musings

    I'll add my two cents, or Mexican dollars or whatever.

    First, 1997 may be the year that type 1.5 catches on big time.
There are at least three major tournament deck types that will be
competitive in type 1.5 after the sea change in type II completes.
Yes, Hymn to Tourach will become type 1.5 legal, since it won't be
type II restricted or banned by name, etc.  We may even see Balance
decks once again.  Looks like a fun format while type I has become
VERY stale.  It would be nice if point system would catch on, but I
don't expect it to.  However, 1.5 is looking a LOT nicer next year.

    Second, type II will change completely during the first quarter,
and it may be this time next year before we know what the power decks
are.  The best type II decks at any point in time are those that
survived the last few rules/set changes more or less intact.  It take
a while for even an expert to really tune a deck and know why it works
and how to use it against particular competitive strategies.  I think
that TurboStasis will survive January first--a couple of the key Ice
Ages cards made it into Mirage.  But Fifth Edition could revitalize
TS--or it could remove Stasis and Boomerang.

    Sligh seems prepared for the winter season, but losing Lightning
Bolt if that happens in Fifth Edition could be a serious blow.  Way
too soon to guess.

    What other deck types will survive (or thrive)?  Necro can survive
the loss of Necro--Infernal Contract is already appearing in some
Necro decks while Necro is still legal.  But if no pump knights appear
in Fifth, the creature mix is a real problem.  I think that we will
see mono-black evolving toward Stairwell decks: lots of cheap weenies,
a few special purpose creatures, stairwells, Tormod's Crypts, and
Jalum Tome and Infernal Contract (and possibly a Thawing Glaciers) for
card drawing.  Lion's Eye Diamonds and Dark Rituals for speed.

    Red/Green buff weenie may be dead, but I doubt it.  If Tinder Wall
makes it into Fifth--and I suspect it will--this style will be very
much alive.

    Willowgeddon/Ernhamgeddon decks will survive the loss of Erham and
Willow (assuming they are not in Fifth), but won't be able to survive
the loss of Armageddon if that happens.  Other than that, green/white
as a color combo may be dealt a fatal blow by the loss of Swords.
Well...that may be a little premature.  What we will see are decks
with only a couple of Plains, but with other sources of white mana--at
least until the Dude Ranch leaves the mix.  There are enough ways with
green now to look through your deck for a basic land.  You can use
them for speed, and to get a Plains in play for your Ranch or an
occasional disenchant.

    Green may be showing up with black however.  In a slower card mix
adding the two fast colors together can produce an explosive mixture.
Throw in Cadaverous Bloom, and the mix is explosive.   Big/fast
creature decks are risky with StP around--but it won't be around that
long.  (And there may be a significant advantage to playing with a lot
of 3/3s to avoid Reprisal.)


                                        Robert I. Eachus

with Standard_Disclaimer;
use  Standard_Disclaimer;
function Message (Text: in Clever_Ideas) return Better_Ideas is...

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